Name: Has Zelensky made a strategic blunder?
Uploaded: 2025-07-25T15:55:21.000Z
Duration: 8 min 34 s
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Ukrainians are taking to the streets across the country and they are not happy.

Bill 12414, freshly signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky, puts the country's two main independent anti-corruption agencies under the jurisdiction of the Prosecutor General, a Zelensky appointee.

After the Maidan revolution in 2014, they were a visible effort to shake off a reputation of corruption. Now, those agencies are about to be stripped of their independence.

I'm Jason Palmer, co-host of the Intelligence Podcast.

And I'm Oliver Carroll, Ukraine correspondent for The Economist.

We're going to be talking about ongoing protests in Ukraine against some legislation that strips the independence of anti-corruption bodies.

Remember, if you want to listen to the full episode, click the link in the description below.

It was 8 am when the relevant committee was convened with almost indecent haste.

[At] 9 o'clock, the call went out to the deputies, urging them to vote a three-line whip. Some of them were apparently sort of threatened.

By 12, the vote had happened and shortly after, the bill was on Volodymyr Zelensky's table for signing.

And despite the pressure from protests and from Western agencies of various kinds, he signed it.

I mean, how surprising is it to you that this legislation got tabled at all?

We probably should need to zoom out a little bit, increase our focus the last month or so.

When we've seen the presidential office essentially take out a number of moves, which look to, one would say, crack down on dissent and increase their control over various aspects of politics.

Early in July, the government blocked the appointment of a well-regarded detective from a competition, an independent competition, to the vacant position of the director of the Bureau of Economic Security.

And that was unexpected, to put it mildly.

And then on Monday, we saw the domestic security service, the SBU and the prosecutor's office launch a series of raids against these two anti-corruption bodies, the NABU and SAPO, in the English acronym,

targeting officers and essentially accusing them of criminality in links with Russia.

Now, these bodies are the direct result of the Maidan revolution.

They were insisted on by the West and the civil society.

These were good governance reforms. And, you know, when on Tuesday, you know, the legislation to limit their powers was unveiled first thing in the morning and signed by the president by the end of the day.

You know, this was, you know, the speed of it was shocking.

Still, though, why this bill? What's it intending to do, do you think?

In terms of why it's happening, I think there are two main explanations, certainly that I can see.

The first is that, you know, perhaps something is going on in the background with negotiations that might not be particularly public.

And we know that there have been talks this week in Istanbul and with a view to a possibility of a grand meeting with Trump and Putin and perhaps Zelensky, along with that.

That might suggest there's, we're talking about potential breakthrough with a ceasefire, perhaps then followed by elections. And that would be the impulse to, you know, clear the political field and to consolidate internal power.

My conversations with sources and indeed, subsequent reports suggest that a more likely and more convincing explanation is the activation of investigations into members of Mr. Zelensky's inner circle.

And that would explain the haste and speed in which this law was pushed through.

And what about those in investigations into the anti-corruption bodies? Is there any validity to the accusations there, do you think?

I mean, if we're talking about the raids themselves, I mean, I suspect there are kernels of truth in the specific allegations made against perhaps a few of the officers.

I mean, no institution in Ukraine is clean, certainly not a Russian infiltration, certainly not of criminality.

And to a large degree, these bodies were privileged bodies.

They had a high status in society. They were able to do a lot of the things they wanted to.

And that had a corollary of certain elements of criminality.

If the Zelensky administration had limited themselves to these raids, I mean, I could see how you could possibly make a fudge.

You could say that, you know, law needs to be investigated.

The problem is this bill fundamentally changes the structure of the anti-corruption bodies in Ukraine.

And it's that direct challenge, the subordination of bodies which were not under direct presidential control to a roundabout way of putting them under the direct presidential control.

And that's the thing that's most concerning.

And concerning seemingly also to Ukraine's people who have been taken to the streets.

Right. The level of protest, I think, in many respects was surprising.

And I certainly was speaking to some presidential office insiders early on, and they thought this would wash over.

But the, you know, the protests, in fact, last night, were greater than the first night.

And certainly five or ten thousand were gathered just in front of the presidential administration in Kiev.

These are the first protests, real protests during wartime.

But it's the damage which has been done to relations with the West.

Because the West sees those institutions as putting Ukraine on the path to getting closer to the West, in short.

Right. And during that Tuesday, there was immense pressure put on Volodymyr Zelensky not to sign the bill. He signed the bill in the end.

And I think there's going to be a bigger task for Ukraine to persuade not only, you know, European Western institutions that, you know, Ukraine still is a cause worth fighting and paying for.

But also with, you know, people, you know, I'm just thinking about the MAGA group in America. This is red meat to them.

And it is an unforced error. And to some people, it's the moment, you know, the mask actually slipped.

Well, is there a path back? Is there going to be a reaction to all of these protests, all of this disquiet, both inside and outside Ukraine?

Well, already, I think, you know, you can see the first forms of a response, which is looking to perhaps reverse some of the damage. You know, after doubling down in the early hours of Wednesday,

Zelensky is now talking about a new law to establish the independence of these bodies.

I mean, he said it will be drafted in the next couple of days, and it might be before Friday.

Reestablish the independence of these bodies.

Reestablish. And I think, you know, the devil will be in the detail and we'll have to scrutinize exactly what he's suggesting.

You know, you're sort of tempted to use sort of Orwellian descriptions of whether, you know, this is giving us an appearance of solidity to wind.

We'll have to see what actually, you know, comes through with that legislation.

But clearly, no one is talking about canceling the bill at this moment.

And that's the only real thing that probably would reestablish, you know, full trust in this troubled administration's ability to keep Ukraine on a European Western path.

Ironically, they'd been in a pretty good position diplomatically with Donald Trump, perhaps coming on side.

I think that might have been, you know, a moment that actually gave the presidential office some confidence and allowed them to take this ultimately reckless decision on this very risky bill.