Name: WATCH: Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to discuss interest rates
Uploaded: 2020-03-15T22:14:03.000Z
Duration: 49 min 56 s
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With a strong labor market and inflation near it's 2% objective, I'd like to take a step back and review had the changing economic and financial picture brings us to today's decision.

So far this year, the economy has performed reasonably well with solid fundamentals, supporting continued growth and strong employment.

Inflation has been running somewhat below our objective, but we've expected it to pick up, supported by solid growth in a strong job market.

Along with this favorable picture, we've been mindful of some ongoing cross currents, including trade developments and concerns about global growth.

At the time of our last FOMC meeting, which ended on May 1, there was tentative evidence that these cross currents were moderating.

The latest data from China and Europe were encouraging and there were reports of progress in trade.

Continued patient stance seemed appropriate in the Cup in committee saw no strong case for adjusting our policy rate.

In the weeks since our last meeting, the cross currents have re emerged.

Growth indicators from around the world have disappointed on net raising concerns about the strength of the global economy, apparent progress on trade turned to greater uncertainty and our contacts in business and agriculture.

Report heightened concerns over trade developments.

These concerns may have contributed to the drop in business confidence in some recent surveys and maybe starting to show through two incoming data.

Risk sentiment in financial markets has deteriorated as well.

Against this backdrop, inflation remains muted.

While the baseline outlook remains favorable.

The question is whether these uncertainties will continue to weigh on the outlook and this call for additional monetary policy accommodation.

Many FOMC part participants now see that the case for somewhat more accommodative policy has strengthened.

Let me explain the basis for this judgement.

Starting with the outlook for jobs and growth, participants see unemployment remaining low this year and next.

Monthly job gains in May were lower than expected, however, and in light of recent developments, this bears watching.

Still, many labor market indicators remain strong.

Community, business and labor leaders all tell us that the prospects for job seekers have seldom been better, and that this is true even for those who have traditionally struggled to find work.

Wages are rising, and this is particularly so for lower paying jobs.

Committee participants, growth projections from 2019 or little revised from March, with a central tendency of 2 to 2.2% just above their estimates of longer run normal growth.

The growth projections for the year as a whole mask some important details about the composition of growth.

Annual growth will be boosted by the surprisingly strong first quarter, which had just been reported at the time of the May FOMC meeting.

As I noted them, the unexpected strength was largely in net exports and inventories, components that are not generally reliable indicators of ongoing momentum, the more reliable drivers of growth in the economy or spending on consumption and business investment.

While consumption was weak in the first quarter, incoming data show that has it has bounced back and is now running at a solid pace.

In contrast, the limited evidence available at this time suggests that growth in business fixed income has slowed in the second quarter.

Moreover, manufacturing production has posed to decline so far this year.

Thus, while the baseline outlook remains favorable, many FOMC participants slated the investment picture and weaker business sentiment and the cross currents.

I mentioned earlier as supporting their judgment that the risk of less favorable outcomes has risen.

After running close to our symmetric 2% objective for most of last year, inflation declined in the first quarter.

Data since then show some pickup participants broadly see inflation moving back up toward our 2% objective, but at a slower pace than had been expected.

The central tendency for 2019 core inflation, which emits volatile food and energy components, is between 1.7 and 1.8% setting aside short term fluctuations.

Committee participants expressed concerns about the pace of inflation's return to 2%.

Wages are rising as noted above, but not at a pace that would provide much upward impetus to inflation.

Moreover, we could blow weaker global growth may continue to hold inflation down around the world.

We are firmly committed to our symmetric 2% inflation objective, and we are well aware that inflation weakness that persists even in a healthy economy could precipitate a difficult to arrest downward drift in longer run inflation expectations.

Because there are no definitive measures of inflation expectations, we must rely on in perfect proxies.

Market based measures of inflation compensation have moved down since arm A meeting and some survey based expectations.

Measures are near the bottom of their historic ranges, combining these factors with the risks to growth.

Already noted, participants expressed concerns about a more stain sustained shortfall of inflation.

Overall, our policy discussions focused on the appropriate response to the uncertain environment.

The projections of appropriate policy show that many participants believe that some cut in the federal funds rate will be appropriate in the scenario that they see as most likely, though, some participants wrote down policy cuts and others did not of deliberations made clear that a number of those who wrote down a flat rate path agree that the case for additional accommodation has strengthened since our main meeting this an atomic accommodation would support economic activity and inflation's return to our objective.

Uncertainties surrounding the baseline outlook have clearly risen since our last meeting.

It's important, however, that monetary policy not overreact to any individual data point or short term swing in sentiment.

Doing so would risk adding even more uncertainty to the outlook.

Thus, my colleagues and I will be looking to see whether these uncertainties will continue to weigh on the outlook and we will use our tools as appropriate to sustain the expansion.

I will be pleased to take your questions.

Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal.

Chair Powell, Did you consider a rate cut today?

Specifically, Was it one of the options, The policy options in the teal book?

Given all of the uncertainty you addressed moving.

It's changing its policy before the next meeting.

Um, so the committee had, you know, our usual long discussion of global on domestic economic and financial conditions, Uh, and then spent this morning talking about monetary policy.

And, um, I came to the view that that I expressed to you, which is that, um, uh, we're gonna be monitoring, monitoring the cross currents and the other items that we've mentioned, but that we'd like to see more going forward, particularly.

We'd like to see whether these risks continued away on the outlook.

So, um, generally, uh, as I mentioned, many on the committee do see a strength in case eight of those strength in case for cutting rates, eight actually wrote down rate cuts.

A number of others see that the case is strengthened, but the committee wanted to wanted to see Maura's I mentioned.

And, um, I also mentioned that some of these some of these developments have been quite recent vintage.

And so we do expect that will be learning a lot more on all of these issues in the near term.

Do you think something could change before the next meeting?

I'm sure that things will change before the next meeting.

I expect a full range of data and information on all of these issues that we are looking at.

I think we'll learn a great deal more about them.

And I think that's, uh, we think that that's the right way to move here again.

Many of these developments happen, you know, part of the way through the last intervening period.

Only seven weeks ago, we had a great jobs report and came out of the last FOMC meeting feeling that the economy and our policy was in a good place.

So, um, we want to see we want to see and we want to react to developments, uh, and trends that air sustained that are that are genuine and not react just to data points or just to changes in sentiment, which which can, which can be volatile.

At the same time, we're quite mindful of the risks to the outlook and are prepared to move and use our tools as needed to sustain the expansion.

Steve Weissman, CNBC Could you walk us through your thinking about trade?

It was really the threat of tariffs against Mexico that caused at least the market to become definitively bank your pricing in rate cuts.

If, for example, there's a deal with China, does that take the possibility of rate cuts off the table?

Yeah, so I would say that we're not looking at any any one thing.

I guess I would start by agreeing with your premise that news about trade has been an important driver of sentiment in the inter meeting period.

It's really trade developments and concerns about global growth that that are on our minds.

Um, so we're not exclusively focused on one event or one piece of data.

In the meantime, we have incoming data in the United States that's been pretty good, particularly for the consumer.

Consumer spending is solid, supported by you know, healthy job market, high levels of employment, wages going up.

We do see those Some areas that we're looking at, such as I mentioned business, fixed income.

So, um, also the prolonged short short fall in inflation and perhaps job growth.

We like to average over three or six months, but still, that bears watching.

So we'll be monitoring the implications of all of those developments for the U.

We expect to learn a good deal more, as I mentioned, and we'll be asking the question whether those risks are gonna continue the way on the outlook and then in the end, will use our tools as appropriate to to sustain this long expansion.

I, Heather long from The Washington Post.

Could you clarify what you would do if the president tweets or calls you to say he would like to demote you as Fed chair?

I think the law is clear that I have a four year term and I fully intend to serve it.

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WATCH: Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to discuss interest rates

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